With the realignment of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS II), the cost of fossil fuels such as gas and heating oil will rise sharply from 2027. Experts predict a CO₂ price of up to €300 per tonne – comparable to the energy price peaks seen in 2022. Yet most of the population is unprepared for this shift.

Many have heard of CO₂ pricing but know very little

While many Germans have heard of CO₂ pricing, detailed knowledge is rare. 35% are unfamiliar with the specifics of the upcoming reform of the CO₂ price, and 23% have never heard of it at all. Starting in 2027, emissions trading in the EU will expand to cover buildings and transport. While Germany already has a fixed CO₂ price on heating oil, natural gas, and fuels, prices will in the future be determined by market supply and demand, not set by the state. As a key tool in EU climate policy, CO₂ pricing is designed to rely on market incentives rather than bans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, this unfamiliar system makes it difficult for many to prepare for the foreseeable cost increases.

Most Germans underestimate the potential financial impact

The financial consequences of future CO₂ pricing are widely underestimated. A realistic scenario for 2030 – assuming a CO₂ price of €200 to €300 per tonne – would mean up to €1,400 in additional annual costs for an average single-family home with gas heating. But only 5% of respondents estimated this figure accurately. Most gave significantly lower estimates: 23% expect under €500, 33% estimate between €500 and €800, while nearly 20% were unable to provide an estimate.

While the underlying scenario reflects the upper range of scientific forecasts, it is deliberately chosen to highlight the potential financial burden in the absence of effective climate action. Ultimately, the actual costs for consumers will depend on political decisions. Relief measures such as a proposed climate dividend or socially tiered compensation models are being considered – but how this transition will be implemented fairly remains unclear.

Climate costs are unequally distributed – many want to act, but feel they can’t

Many people recognize the need to act – but often lack the means. While 9% of respondents have already taken steps such as replacing their heating systems, renovating, relocating, or reducing energy consumption, another 19% plan to take action in the coming years. At the same time, about one-third (32%) say they would like to act but are currently feeling unable to due to external circumstances – such as financial limitations or because they rent rather than own their homes. People with lower incomes are particularly affected: they show higher willingness to act but more frequently encounter practical barriers.

CO₂ pricing pequires practical, equitable solutions

The survey shows that while awareness of rising climate-related costs is growing, many people still lack concrete knowledge, realistic expectations, and actionable options. For CO₂ pricing to be effective without worsening social inequalities, robust political frameworks and practical technologies are essential to bridge the gap between knowledge, willingness, and action.

For homeowners and landlords, heat pumps already offer a future-proof solution: they provide independence from fossil fuels – and therefore from CO₂ pricing. Combined with suitable electricity tariffs, they can be both climate-friendly and cost-effective. Aira demonstrates how this transition can work in practice: as a one-stop shop for heat pumps, the company offers a comprehensive package – from energy assessments and subsidy advice to installation by local teams. Proprietary, customized product systems, a 15-year warranty, monthly financing options, and consumption-optimized green electricity tariffs make the switch to a sustainable heating solution both predictable and affordable.